What happened during the month?
QSR had another good month +7% in November making a new high for the year and +6% since Christian took over the fund towards the end of June.
What happened to the markets and our portfolio?
The markets continued their rebound from an overly pessimistic stance by most investors as data pointing towards Inflation and Fed hawkishness having peaked. Our overall long exposure helped performance. We stay constructive in December, due to seasonality, continued cautious investor positioning and positive data from inflation and tentative China reopening hopes. The economy seems not to be falling off a cliff for now. IFO business expectations were sharply up in November although from a very low level.
As inflation moderates over the coming year and $/yields calm down while uncertainty about the economy and geopolitics persist finally Gold and mining stocks -trading at a historically very depressed level in terms of P/NAV – might see a strong rebound. The GDX was up 20% in November but is still 29% below its 2022 high and more than 50% below its 2011 Level. We have a 23% long weight in gold mining stocks overall. Especially I-80 -our biggest position (8.5%) – benefitted from further strong drilling results and was up 67% for the month.
We have stock specific exposure to small caps in our Long-term growth and hidden gems substrategies. Small caps have underperformed by over 10% since June and the relative performance of Eurozone small vs large caps remains at the lowest levels in nearly 3 years. We think dispersion of stock returns will increase next year, small caps will see at rebound at some stage as an asset class and then current low levels are giving us very good entry points at cheap valuations in some stocks which could be Multi-baggers (like Micro-X, Hochschild Mining or Mynaric).
Factsheet QSR Global – November 2022